This guide assists organizations in preparing for and conducting a twohour foresight workshop utilizing scenario planning techniques. At the same time, design thinking provides a solutionbased approach to solving problems. The approach incorporates traditional design processes along with other elements that distinguish it, such as systems thinking, visual sensemaking, and stakeholder facilitation. Introduction the government office for science goscience ensures that government policies and decisions are informed by the best scientific evidence. In addition there are numerous diagrams and figures, many of which have been produced especially for this publication. However, this future includes tools and methodologies coming from strategic foresight and futurecasting, such as scenario planning, context maps, and trend maps. Maximizing the power of strategic foresight washington. The futures toolkit is a key resource that policy professionals can use to embed long term strategic thinking in the. This article introduces the foresight competency model, which addresses.
Strategic foresight october 2019 strategic foresight for. In an attempt to define it, design thinking is an innovation or problem solving methodology that employs the creative strategies used within professional design practice to address a broader set of. It gives concrete suggestions where and how to employ foresight. Applying foresight methods to traditional planning processes represents an opportunity for. When thinking about the world at this scale, the big picture pops out and we can begin to think about design in terms of strategic preparation for our future. A schools curricula rarely expose us to thinking about and acting in the future except at a very shallow level and awareness of futures education opportunities is very low. Combines logic and creativity design thinking promotes a focus on endusers needs. Futures thinking for social foresight pdf foresight. Strategic foresight and design thinking heres how tamara carleton and i describe what we have to offer. For that reason, the future today institutes research. Overall, futures thinking for social foresight provides an accessible and comprehensive introduction to, and overview of, some of the best thinking and most accessible options available in futures studies and applied foresight. To be the best big picture guide to 21st century foresight. Strategic thinking is concerned with exploration based on limited and patchy information and options, not the steps needed for implementation of actions. Design thinking was originally applied to the business context by david kelley, who founded the design and innovation company ideo in 1991.
Foresight can support3 government policymaking in the following main ways. Futures thinking in asia and the pacific 2 futures thinking the theory and methods and foresight the practical application are a set of approaches and tools designed to help their users. In some sense you can say that foresight should inform all design work. Five strategic foresight tools to enhance business model innovation teaching matthew j. Foresight extends times frames, giving a broader understanding on how different futures, might possibly. The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. The foresight manual empowered futures for the 2030 agenda provides a crisp and concise overview of the use of foresight for sdgs implementation.
Embracing systematic futures thinking at the intersection. This online book is the most comprehensive intro to general futures thinking and professional foresight practice available on the web. The piece opens by highlighting the growing relationship between the fields. With that in mind, the future of design thinking is about going beyond designing for todays problems. What is the connection between strategic foresight and design. Foresight workshop how to guide foresight workshop how. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that. A radical shift in perspective to transform your organization to become more innovative the design thinking playbook is an actionable guide to the future of business. The idea of design as an approach to thinking and doing in the sciences was first championed by economist, management theorist, computer scientist, and complex systems polymath herbert simon in the sciences of the artificial 1969.
Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of the range of strategic options available to an organisation. Holm 1,2, rene rohrbeck abstract we discuss our lessons from 8 years of teaching business model innovation to executives in our parttime mba program. As design thinking has emerged, it has stimulated thinking in the foresight field as to whether, and if so, how design thinking may be used to improve strategic foresight kelliher. This framework recognises the complexities that emerge due to multifaceted interplays between the social, technological, economic, ecological, political and value steepv systems. Iftfs futuresthinking curriculum draws on more than 50 years of experience in strategic foresight and helping organizations prepare for the future. Design thinking 20 drivers driving forces 21 e m early warning system 23 emergence 23 emerging strategic issues 24 environmental scanning 26 experimentation 27 forecasting 27.
The manual puts foresight firmly in a development context, emphasizing the importance of foresight capacity in developing countries. Design thinking 20 drivers driving forces 21 e m early warning system 23 emergence 23 emerging strategic issues 24 environmental scanning 26 experimentation 27 forecasting 27 foresight 27 futures 28 futures competency framework 28 game theory 28 horizon scanning 29 interdependence 29. And youll choose one or more future topics you want to investigate with your new foresight skills. Embracing systematic futures thinking at the intersection of. Foresight university 4u is a professional learning and development company, run by academicallytrained foresight practitioners, entrepreneurs, technologists, and creatives. At foresight, we leverage approaches from both fields of practice. Nov 18, 2019 strategic foresight is an interdisciplinary domain that draws on cybernetics and systems thinking, management sciences, sociology, data science, cognitive psychology, and creative thinking, among others. On thursday, february 20th, institute for the future, together with the world bank groups rachel alexandra halsema, hosted a free and publicfacing webinar about how shes applying. Foresight needs to be properly embedded into decisionmaking, both in process terms along the different phases of decisionmaking and in structuralorganisational terms as.
Our foresight practice, modeled after a design thinking process developed by the institute for the future, the worlds leading nonprofit strategic futures organization, carefully analyzes and. Foresight extends times frames, giving a broader understanding on how different futures, might possibly look like. Apr 04, 2011 in some sense you can say that foresight should inform all design work. By employing a common yet nimble process, foresight has grown more adept at applying this in different contexts and at varying scales. Part of our mission at the future today institute is to develop a culture of foresight in every organization. Pdf design thinking, strategic foresight, business model.
However, developing strategic foresight does not really get into the design of solutions, even though we. This is because the design of products and services is a major component of business. Services provided by thinking futures are underpinned by the generic foresight process framework joseph voros, a generic foresight process framework, 2003, shown in the following diagram. City life is the key to the future of society and culture. The authors overarching goal is to identify the features and characteristics of design thinking and discuss its importance in promoting students problemsolving skills in the 21st century. This requires a rapid response capability, which can be delivered through the development of concurrent design foresight. We live in an interconnected world where the old answers dont seem to apply, where even successful businesses need to embrace radical change, where global challenges demand collaboration and innovation on a new scale, where choices. Strategic foresight is an interdisciplinary domain that draws on cybernetics and systems thinking, management sciences, sociology, data science, cognitive psychology, and. Design thinking has also started to receive increased attention in business settings. Futures thinking in asia and the pacific 2 futures thinking the theory and methods and foresight the practical application are a set of approaches and tools designed to help their users identify emerging issues, negotiate uncertainties. Historical foresight analysis hfa select sources of historical 3ps foresight hfa involves returning to older published books and media on foresight and future thinking, so we can reevaluate the predictions, possibilities, preferences, models, assumptions, values, and biases of the foresight practitioner, their organizations, and cultures. A mashup find, read and cite all the research you need on. This article introduces the foresight competency model, which addresses the basic question of what one ought to be able to do as a professional futurist.
Design thinking is an iterative process in which we seek to understand the user and redefine problems in an attempt to identify alternative strategies and solutions. This guide assists organizations in preparing for and conducting a twohour foresight workshop. Futures thinking for social foresight in addition to these practical and userfriendly sections, there are a number of reflections or short pieces that invite deeper consideration. Ultimately though, foresight is used to develop a view of the future relevant to your organisations context to inform decision making today. It is a way of thinking and working as well as a collection of handson methods. We live in an interconnected world where the old answers dont seem to apply. Design thinking meets futures thinking published on october 19, 2016 october 19, 2016 1,769 likes 122 comments. Foresight then, as a part of a strategic thinking, is designed to open up an expanded range of perceptions of the strategic options available, so that strategymaking is potentially wiser.
The discourse around 21st century problem solving is gradually shifting from design thinking to systems thinking. Based on the ideas of systems thinking, the systemic foresight methodology sfm proposes a framework for designing and implementing foresight activities. Pdf on jan 1, 2012, robert logan and others published design thinking, strategic foresight, business model generation and biology. Strategic foresight is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. Introduction the government office for science goscience ensures that government policies and decisions are informed by the best scientific evidence and strategic long term thinking. Customtailored for any organization, iftfs custom foresight essentials delivers a series of integrated lessons framed around the powerful curriculum of prepareforesightinsightaction. This study aims to explore the strategies of xerox corporation xerox in the copier industry, as its inception to date. In futurology, especially in europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as. For that reason, the future today institutes research and tools are now open source and licensed under a creative commons attribution noncommercialsharealike 4.
This type of a workshop can involve a small team or a. Dec 08, 2010 if these trends continue, what types of structures must be designed in order to redirect the wasted productivity and surplus mental power that is currently sitting idle. Anticipatory thinking to support decisionmaking is its essence. Strategic foresight october 2019 3 how can foresight add value in policy making. We examine how strategic foresight tools are particularly. The foresight guide a big picture guide to the 21st century.